Advanced Tech-Wielding Space Aliens Are Likely Very Rare, Says Researcher

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Highly-advanced technological extraterrestrial civilizations of the sort capable of great longevity, interstellar travel and permanent off-world colonies are likely to be exceedingly rare in the cosmos, a new paper in the International Journal of Astrobiology concludes. Using the scientific ‘Principle of Mediocrity,’ the paper notes that based on a sampling of one, our 100 year-old tech civilization is also likely to be representative of the average age of tech civilizations in both our galaxy and the universe at large. In fact, it argues that, if extraterrestrial civilizations exist, some 95% would have technology no more than 200 years beyond our own. Daniel Whitmire, the paper’s sole author, writes that the “Principle of Mediocrity (also known as the Copernican Principle and Typicality Principle) is the precept that, in the absence of any evidence to the contrary, we should assume that we are typical members of an appropriately chosen reference class.” In other words, Whitmire argues that this principle is our best guide when there is only a single example, as is the case with our own technological civilization. Whitmire, an astrophysicist now teaching mathematics at the University of Arkansas in Fayetteville, says that a civilization’s realization that it is technologically-young inherently dictates that most other tech civilizations must also be young. Why? “Because if it were not true that would violate the Principle of Mediocrity,” said Whitmire. “The principle is our best guide if there is no contrary evidence.”

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